Observational evidence of energetic particle precipitation NO <sub> <i>x</i> </sub> (EPP-NO <sub> <i>x</i> </sub> ) interaction with chlorine curbing Antarctic ozone loss
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. We investigate the impact of the so-called energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect on lower stratospheric ozone, ClO, and ClONO2 in the Antarctic springtime. We use observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on Aura, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) on SCISAT, and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat, covering the period from 2005 to 2017. Using the geomagnetic activity index Ap as a proxy for EPP, we find consistent ozone increases with elevated EPP during years with an easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in both OMI and MLS observations. While these increases are the opposite of what has previously been reported at higher altitudes, the pattern in the MLS O3 follows the typical descent patterns of EPP-NOx. The ozone enhancements are also present in the OMI total O3 column observations. Analogous to the descent patterns found in O3, we also found consistent decreases in springtime MLS ClO following winters with elevated EPP. To verify if this is due to a previously proposed mechanism involving the conversion of ClO to the reservoir species ClONO2 in reaction with NO2, we used ClONO2 observations from ACE-FTS and MIPAS. As ClO and NO2 are both catalysts in ozone destruction, the conversion to ClONO2 would result in an ozone increase. We find a positive correlation between EPP and ClONO2 in the upper stratosphere in the early spring and in the lower stratosphere in late spring, providing the first observational evidence supporting the previously proposed mechanism relating to EPP-NOx modulating Clx-driven ozone loss. Our findings suggest that EPP has played an important role in modulating ozone depletion in the last 15 years. As chlorine loading in the polar stratosphere continues to decrease in the future, this buffering mechanism will become less effective, and catalytic ozone destruction by EPP-NOx will likely become a major contributor to Antarctic ozone loss.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".