A Eulerian Explosive Cyclogenesis climatology from the ERA5 reanalysis, 1979-2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using the criterion of one Bergeron (24 hPa change over 24 h at 60°), we present the creation of a Eulerian explosive cyclogenesis climatology using hourly-temporal resolution data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting’s ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2018). This approach differs to the typically used Lagrangian methodologies adopted by many studies. The climatology created by this approach results in similar patterns to previous studies. Assessments on the dataset are undertaken to analyse the influence of seasonality, teleconnections, climate change and individual events (the method picks up tropical cyclones as well as mid-latitude storms). The location experiencing the most consistent explosive cyclongenesis conditions (15% of the time during the Northern Hemisphere winter) is to the east of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland. The preferred location of explosive cyclogenesis is shown to change in relation to patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Potential applications of the dataset are suggested.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".