Distinct Body Mass Index Trajectories to Young-Adulthood Obesity and Their Different Cardiometabolic Consequences
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective: Different body mass index (BMI) trajectories that result in obesity may have diverse health consequences, yet this heterogeneity is poorly understood. We aimed to identify distinct classes of individuals who share similar BMI trajectories and examine associations with cardiometabolic health. Approach and Results: Using data on 3549 participants in ALSPAC (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children), a growth mixture model was developed to capture heterogeneity in BMI trajectories between 7.5 and 24.5 years. Differences between identified classes in height growth curves, body composition trajectories, early-life characteristics, and a panel of cardiometabolic health measures at 24.5 years were investigated. The best mixture model had 6 classes. There were 2 normal-weight classes: normal weight (nonlinear; 35% of sample) and normal weight (linear; 21%). Two classes resulted in young-adulthood overweight: normal weight increasing to overweight (18%) and normal weight or overweight (16%). Two classes resulted in young-adulthood obesity: normal weight increasing to obesity (6%) and overweight or obesity (4%). The normal-weight-increasing-to-overweight class had more unfavorable levels of trunk fat, blood pressure, insulin, HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, left ventricular mass, and E/e′ ratio compared with the always-normal-weight-or-overweight class, despite the average BMI trajectories for both classes converging at ≈26 kg/m 2 at 24.5 years. Similarly, the normal-weight-increasing-to-obesity class had a worse cardiometabolic profile than the always-overweight-or-obese class. Conclusions: Individuals with high and stable BMI across childhood may have lower cardiometabolic disease risk than individuals who do not become overweight or obese until late adolescence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".