Mendelian randomization provides no evidence for a causal role in the bidirectional relationship between depression and multiple sclerosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is common in multiple sclerosis (MS) and its incidence rises before MS diagnosis. However, the causality and direction of this association remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The objective is to investigate the bidirectional relationship between MS and MDD using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: = 47,429 cases; 68,374 controls). Using two-sample MR, we examined putative causal effects in either direction, with sensitivity analyses to assess pleiotropy. Also, we adjusted for body mass index (BMI) in multivariable MR. RESULTS: We found no effect of genetic liability to MDD on the odds of MS (OR = 1.07/doubling in odds, 95% CI = 0.90-1.28). Similarly, our findings did not support a causal effect of genetic liability to MS on MDD (OR = 1.00/doubling in odds, 95% CI = 0.99-1.01). Despite heterogeneity, sensitivity analyses indicated that bias from pleiotropy was unlikely. Conversely, genetic predisposition toward higher BMI increased the odds of MS (OR = 1.34/SD increase, 95% CI = 1.09-1.65) and MDD (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01-1.15). CONCLUSION: This study does not support a causal association between MDD genetic liability and MS susceptibility, and vice versa. Genetic evidence suggesting commonality of obesity to both conditions may partly explain the increased incidence of depression pre-MS diagnosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".