Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data as the Basis for Panel Modelling: The Case of Kidnappings in México From 2010 to 2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents the elements entailing the building of a panel data model on the basis of both cross-sectional and time series dimensions, as well as the assumptions implemented for the model application; this, with the objective of focusing on the main elements of the panel data modelling, its way of building, the estimation of parameters and their ratification. On the basis of the methodology of operations research, a practical application exercise is made to estimate the number of kidnapping cases in Mexico based on several economic indicators, finding that from the two types of panel data analyzed in this research, the best adjustment is obtained through the random-effects model, and the most meaningful variables are the Gross domestic product growth and the informal employment rate from the period 2010 to 2019 in each of the states. Thus, it is illustrated that panel data modelling present a better adjustment of data than any other type of models such as linear regression and time series analysis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".