Relationships between fox populations and rabies virus spread in northern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rabies spreads in both Arctic (Vulpes lagopus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) throughout the Canadian Arctic but limited wildlife disease surveillance, due to the extensive landmass of the Canadian north and its small widely scattered human population, undermines our knowledge of disease transmission patterns. This study has explored genetic population structure in both the rabies virus and its fox hosts to better understand factors that impact rabies spread. Phylogenetic analysis of 278 samples of the Arctic lineage of rabies virus recovered over 40 years identified four sub-lineages, A1 to A4. The A1 lineage has been restricted to southern regions of the Canadian province of Ontario. The A2 lineage, which predominates in Siberia, has also spread to northern Alaska while the A4 lineage was recovered from southern Alaska only. The A3 sub-lineage, which was also found in northern Alaska, has been responsible for virtually all cases across northern Canada and Greenland, where it further differentiated into 18 groups which have systematically evolved from a common predecessor since 1975. In areas of Arctic and red fox sympatry, viral groups appear to circulate in both hosts, but both mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 9-locus microsatellite genotypes revealed contrasting phylogeographic patterns for the two fox species. Among 157 Arctic foxes, 33 mitochondrial control region haplotypes were identified but little genetic structure differentiating localities was detected. Among 162 red foxes, 18 control region haplotypes delineated three groups which discriminated among the Churchill region of Manitoba, northern Quebec and Labrador populations, and the coastal Labrador locality of Cartwright. Microsatellite analyses demonstrated some genetic heterogeneity among sampling localities of Arctic foxes but no obvious pattern, while two or three clusters of red foxes suggested some admixture between the Churchill and Quebec-Labrador regions but uniqueness of the Cartwright group. The limited population structure of Arctic foxes is consistent with the rapid spread of rabies virus subtypes throughout the north, while red fox population substructure suggests that disease spread in this host moves most readily down certain independent corridors such as the northeastern coast of Canada and the central interior. Interestingly the evidence suggests that these red fox populations have limited capacity to maintain the virus over the long term, but they may contribute to viral persistence in areas of red and Arctic fox sympatry.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".