Reaching for known unknowns: Rapid reach decisions accurately reflect the future state of dynamic probabilistic information
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Everyday tasks such as catching a ball appear effortless, but in fact require complex interactions and tight temporal coordination between the brain’s visual and motor systems. What makes such interceptive actions particularly impressive is the capacity of the brain to account for temporal delays in the central nervous system—a limitation that can be mitigated by making predictions about the environment as well as one’s own actions. Here, we wanted to assess how well human participants can plan an upcoming movement based on a dynamic, predictable stimulus that is not the target of action. A central stationary or rotating stimulus determined the probability that each of two potential targets would be the eventual target of a rapid reach-to-touch movement. We examined the extent to which reach movement trajectories convey internal predictions about the future state of dynamic probabilistic information conveyed by the rotating stimulus. We show that movement trajectories reflect the target probabilities determined at movement onset, suggesting that humans rapidly and accurately integrate visuospatial predictions and estimates of their own reaction times to effectively guide action.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".