The Relationship Between Patterns of Change in Dynamic Risk and Strength Scores and Reoffending for Men on Community Supervision
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Research is needed focusing on the predictive nature of dynamic risk and strength score changes. The current study includes 11,953 Canadian men under community supervision with Service Planning Instrument re-assessment data. Using a retrospective, multi-wave longitudinal design, hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was conducted to assess patterns of change in total dynamic risk and strength scores across three to five timepoints over 30 months. Change parameters from the HLM were incorporated into regression models, linking change to three reoffending outcomes: technical violations, new charges, and new violent charges. Results indicated that total dynamic risk scores decreased over time and total dynamic strength scores increased over time, although the rate of change for both was gradual. Change in total dynamic risk scores was predictive of all outcomes, whereas change in total dynamic strength scores only predicted technical violations. Results demonstrated the utility of re-assessing dynamic risk and strength scores over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".