Optimising prediction of early metastasis-free survival in uveal melanoma using a four-category model incorporating gene expression profile and tumour size
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Largest basal diameter (LBD) appears to have independent prognostic value in uveal melanoma (UM). METHODS: All patients undergoing plaque brachytherapy or enucleation for UM involving the choroid and/or ciliary body between 2012 and 2019. RESULTS: A total of 348 patients with a mean age of 60±14 years were included and followed for a mean of 40±26 months (3.3±2.2 years). On multivariate analysis, LBD >12 mm remained a significant independent predictor of metastasis for both class 1 (HR 21.90; 95% CI 2.69 to 178.02; p=0.004) and class 2 (HR 2.45; 95% CI, 1.03 to 5.83; p=0.04) tumours. Four prognostic groups were created: group 1 (class 1, LBD <12 mm), group 2 (class 1, LBD ≥12 mm), group 3 (class 2, LBD <12 mm) and group 4 (class 2, LBD ≥12 mm). Life tables were used to calculate the 3-year and 5-year metastasis-free survival: group 1 (98 and 98%), group 2 (86 and 86%), group 3 (81 and 62%) and group 4 (54 and 47%). Compared with the reference category (group 1), the Cox proportional hazard model demonstrated a significant worsening of survival for each progressive category (group 2 (HR 21.59; p=0.004), group 3 (HR 47.12, p<0.001), and group 4 (HR 114.24; p<0.001)). In our dataset, the four-category Cox model performed poorer compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) and gene expression profile (AJCC+GEP) in the Akaike's information criteria (AIC) (297 vs 291), fit better with the Bayesian information criteria (BIC) (309 vs 313) and performed similarly with the Harrel's C (0.86 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.91) vs 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Combination of GEP and LBD allows separation of patients into four easy-to-use prognostic groups and was similar to a model combining AJCC stage with GEP.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".