Towns and Trails Drive Carnivore Connectivity using a Step Selection Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Global increases in human activity threaten connectivity of animal populations. Protection and restoration of animal movement corridors requires robust models to forecast the effects of human activity on connectivity. Recent advances in the field of animal movement ecology and step selection functions offer new approaches for estimating connectivity. We show how a combination of hidden Markov movement models and step selection functions can be used to simulate realistic movement paths with multiple behavioral states. Simulated paths can be used to generate utilization distributions and estimate changes in connectivity for multiple land use scenarios. We applied movement models to 20 years of grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) and gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) data collected in and around Banff National Park, Canada. These carnivores avoided areas near towns in all seasons, avoided areas of high trail density in most seasons, and campgrounds during summer and fall. We simulated movement paths for three landscape scenarios: reference conditions with no anthropogenic development, current conditions, and future conditions with expanded town footprints and trail networks. We counted the number of paths that crossed valley-wide, digital transects through mountain tourist towns of Banff and Canmore, Alberta. We divided current and future crossing rates by the reference crossing rates to estimate connectivity. Current connectivity rates ranged between 7 and 45% of reference values with an average of 21% for grizzly bears and 25% for wolves. Potential town expansion and increased development of trails further decreased connectivity an average of 6% in future scenarios. Anthropogenic developments reduced the amount of available high quality large carnivore habitat in the Bow Valley by an average of 14% under current conditions and 16% under future conditions. Our approach for estimating connectivity provides a robust and flexible method for combining movement models with step selection analyses to estimate connectivity for a variety of species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".