Utility of Climatic Information via Combining Ability Models to Improve Genomic Prediction for Yield Within the Genomes to Fields Maize Project
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Genomic prediction provides an efficient alternative to conventional phenotypic selection for developing improved cultivars with desirable characteristics. New and improved methods to genomic prediction are continually being developed that attempt to deal with the integration of data types beyond genomic information. Modern automated weather systems offer the opportunity to capture continuous data on a range of environmental parameters at specific field locations. In principle, this information could characterize training and target environments and enhance predictive ability by incorporating weather characteristics as part of the genotype-by-environment (G×E) interaction component in prediction models. We assessed the usefulness of including weather data variables in genomic prediction models using a naïve environmental kinship model across 30 environments comprising the Genomes to Fields (G2F) initiative in 2014 and 2015. Specifically four different prediction scenarios were evaluated (i) tested genotypes in observed environments; (ii) untested genotypes in observed environments; (iii) tested genotypes in unobserved environments; and (iv) untested genotypes in unobserved environments. A set of 1,481 unique hybrids were evaluated for grain yield. Evaluations were conducted using five different models including main effect of environments; general combining ability (GCA) effects of the maternal and paternal parents modeled using the genomic relationship matrix; specific combining ability (SCA) effects between maternal and paternal parents; interactions between genetic (GCA and SCA) effects and environmental effects; and finally interactions between the genetics effects and environmental covariates. Incorporation of the genotype-by-environment interaction term improved predictive ability across all scenarios. However, predictive ability was not improved through inclusion of naive environmental covariates in G×E models. More research should be conducted to link the observed weather conditions with important physiological aspects in plant development to improve predictive ability through the inclusion of weather data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it