Unravelling potential northward migration pathways for tree species under climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Climate‐induced range expansion ultimately implies recruitment at sites that were previously unoccupied by a species (i.e. colonization events). Using evidence on abiotic conditions and biotic interactions at these migration sites, we aimed to identify migration pathways from northern temperate to boreal forests for species showing northward range expansion. Location Quebec, Canada. Taxon Trees of northern temperate/boreal forests. Methods Using past (1970–1977) and recently updated (2003–2015) forest inventories across 761,100 km 2 , we first quantified latitudinal shifts for saplings of eight tree species and investigated colonization events at migration sites. We used field evidence and a consensus modelling approach to determine environmental suitability and identify edaphic, climatic and disturbance conditions, as well as species co‐occurrence patterns, characterizing recent colonization events. The results were interpreted in relation to novel species associations facilitating species migration in unsuitable landscapes. Results All species showed northward latitudinal shifts driven by increased recruitment and colonization northward. Colonization events occurred largely at historically unsuitable sites. Migration sites showed a shift towards humus types characteristic of the boreal forest and not typically found in the core range of most temperate species. Climatic conditions at migration sites were initially colder than at occupied sites, but warming suggests recent climatic suitability. A decrease in conifer basal area at migration sites following disturbances reduced priority effects that possibly constrained deciduous species establishment. Co‐occurrence patterns pointed to deciduous species tolerant of boreal edaphic conditions, leading the way for other temperate species. Main conclusions Temperate tree species can recruit into sites typical of boreal forests, even under environmentally challenging conditions. Warming and disturbances open up the way for some novel species associations that in turn have the potential to facilitate the recruitment of temperate species into the boreal forest, revealing migration pathways.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".