Peripheral inflammatory biomarkers define biotypes of bipolar depression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We identified biologically relevant moderators of response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitor, infliximab, among 60 individuals with bipolar depression. Data were derived from a 12-week, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial secondarily evaluating the efficacy of infliximab on a measure of anhedonia (i.e., Snaith–Hamilton Pleasure Scale). Three inflammatory biotypes were derived from peripheral cytokine measurements using an iterative, machine learning-based approach. Infliximab-randomized participants classified as biotype 3 exhibited lower baseline concentrations of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and soluble TNF receptor-1 and reported greater pro-hedonic improvements, relative to those classified as biotype 1 or 2. Pretreatment biotypes also moderated changes in neuroinflammatory substrates relevant to infliximab’s hypothesized mechanism of action. Neuronal origin-enriched extracellular vesicle (NEV) protein concentrations were reduced to two factors using principal axis factoring: phosphorylated nuclear factorκB (p-NFκB), Fas-associated death domain (p-FADD), and IκB kinase (p-IKKα/β) and TNF receptor-1 (TNFR1) comprised factor “NEV1,” whereas phosphorylated insulin receptor substrate-1 (p-IRS1), p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p-p38), and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (p-JNK) constituted “NEV2”. Among infliximab-randomized subjects classified as biotype 3, NEV1 scores were decreased at weeks 2 and 6 and increased at week 12, relative to baseline, and NEV2 scores increased over time. Decreases in NEV1 scores and increases in NEV2 scores were associated with greater reductions in anhedonic symptoms in our classification and regression tree model (r2 = 0.22, RMSE = 0.08). Our findings provide preliminary evidence supporting the hypothesis that the pro-hedonic effects of infliximab require modulation of multiple TNF-α signaling pathways, including NF-κB, IRS1, and MAPK.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".