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Record W3135158722 · doi:10.1021/cen-09908-scicon2

Pandemic emission reductions didn’t budge climate

2021· article· en· W3135158722 on OpenAlex
Katherine Bourzac

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueC&EN Global Enterprise · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicCOVID-19 impact on air quality
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsClimate changeEnvironmental scienceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)PandemicClimatologyGlobal warmingMeteorologyAtmospheric sciencesGeographyOceanographyPhysicsGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Lockdowns designed to slow the spread of COVID-19 caused a large decrease in vehicle traffic in 2020. As a result, global carbon dioxide emissions plummeted. Scientists wondered whether these short-term changes would be significant enough to affect the climate. Now, a team led by John Fyfe of Environment and Climate Change Canada has an early look at the answer. The results show that the emission reductions caused by the pandemic led to undetectably small effects on global average temperatures ( Sci. Adv. 2021, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf7133 ). In early 2020, as it became clear that the pandemic would cause large-scale emission changes, Fyfe and his colleagues used a powerful climate model to test a few projections for what might happen over 2 years of reduced emissions. They modeled scenarios in which CO 2 emissions and sulfate aerosol levels dropped as low as 25, 50, or 100% during that period, then looked

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.241
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.015
GPT teacher head0.320
Teacher spread0.306 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it