Temporal changes in the relative abundance of anadromous Arctic charr, brown trout, and Atlantic salmon in northern Europe: Do they reflect changing climates?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Warming temperatures resulting from climate change may alter the distribution and abundance of many freshwater fish species, especially those in northern latitudes. Owing to interspecific differences in temperature adaptations and tolerances, warming may lead to changes in the fish community as a result of shifts in the abundance of co‐existing species. We investigated how increased temperatures have potentially affected the abundance and catch composition of anadromous salmonids in northern Europe. We used national angling catch statistics over a period of several decades (1993–2018) as a proxy of relative annual abundance of adult Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), and Arctic charr ( Salvelinus alpinus ) in water courses in Iceland and in northern Norway. These are the only locations in the world where the three species coexist naturally as anadromous forms, and where they are distributed across latitudinal gradients characterised by varying temperatures. Interpolated data on average annual air temperatures proximate to the study rivers increased 1–1.7°C in northern Norway and 1.0–1.5°C in Iceland during the 26‐year study period. While the overall total number of fish caught has remained relatively stable during the period of study, gradual climate warming has been accompanied by a marked change in the catch composition of the three species in both countries. Increased temperatures were related to a decreased proportion of Arctic charr and an increased proportion of brown trout, while no temperature effect was found for Atlantic salmon. Controlling for the difference between fluvial and lacustrine systems, brown trout has begun to replace Arctic charr in all regions, whereas the relative catch of Atlantic salmon has been stable. Interpretation of angling data can facilitate understanding of longer‐term trends in catch data and provide insights into possible underlying changes in fish species and alert managers to shifts in abundance that might be mitigated by management actions. However, care must be taken to avoid the confounding effects that changes in fisheries management measures, angler preferences, and effort might have on the metrics of relative change used to make inferences about long‐term trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".