A Probabilistic Model to Predict Household Occupancy Profiles for Home Energy Management Applications
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to the impact of human lifestyle on building energy consumption, the development of occupants' behavior models is crucial for energy-saving purposes. In this regard, occupancy modeling is an effective approach to intend such a purpose. However, the literature reveals that existing occupancy models have limitations related to the representation of occupancy state duration and the integration of occupancy variability among individuals. Accordingly, this paper proposes an explicit differentiated duration probabilistic model to generate realistic daily occupancy profiles in residential buildings. The discrete-time Markov chain theory and the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model (Cox regression) are used to predict household occupancy profiles. The proposed model is able to capture occupancy states duration and integrate human behavior variability according to individuals' characteristics. Moreover, a parametric analysis is employed to investigate these characteristics' impact on the model performance and consequently, select the most significant input variables. A validation process is conducted by comparing the model performance with that of previous methods, presented in the literature. For this purpose, the k crossvalidation technique is utilized. Validation results demonstrate that the proposed approach is highly efficient in generating realistic household occupancy profiles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".