Using Machine Learning Imputed Outcomes to Assess Drug-Dependent Risk of Self-Harm in Patients with Bipolar Disorder: A Comparative Effectiveness Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Incomplete suicidality coding in administrative claims data is a known obstacle for observational studies. With most of the negative outcomes missing from the data, it is challenging to assess the evidence on treatment strategies for the prevention of self-harm in bipolar disorder (BD), including pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy. There are conflicting data from studies on the drug-dependent risk of self-harm, and there is major uncertainty regarding the preventive effect of monotherapy and drug combinations. Objective The aim of this study was to compare all commonly used BD pharmacotherapies, as well as psychotherapy for the risk of self-harm, in a large population of commercially insured individuals, using self-harm imputation to overcome the known limitations of this outcome being underrecorded within US electronic health care records. Methods The IBM MarketScan administrative claims database was used to compare self-harm risk in patients with BD following 65 drug regimens and drug-free periods. Probable but uncoded self-harm events were imputed via machine learning, with different probability thresholds examined in a sensitivity analysis. Comparators included lithium, mood-stabilizing anticonvulsants (MSAs), second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs), first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs), and five classes of antidepressants. Cox regression models with time-varying covariates were built for individual treatment regimens and for any pharmacotherapy with or without psychosocial interventions (“psychotherapy”). Results Among 529,359 patients, 1.66% (n=8813 events) had imputed and/or coded self-harm following the exposure of interest. A higher self-harm risk was observed during adolescence. After multiple testing adjustment (P≤.012), the following six regimens had higher risk of self-harm than lithium: tri/tetracyclic antidepressants + SGA, FGA + MSA, FGA, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SNRI) + SGA, lithium + MSA, and lithium + SGA (hazard ratios [HRs] 1.44-2.29), and the following nine had lower risk: lamotrigine, valproate, risperidone, aripiprazole, SNRI, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), “no drug,” bupropion, and bupropion + SSRI (HRs 0.28-0.74). Psychotherapy alone (without medication) had a lower self-harm risk than no treatment (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.52-0.60; P=8.76×10-58). The sensitivity analysis showed that the direction of drug-outcome associations did not change as a function of the self-harm probability threshold. Conclusions Our data support evidence on the effectiveness of antidepressants, MSAs, and psychotherapy for self-harm prevention in BD. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02893371; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02893371
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.080 | 0.106 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".