Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Colombian Labor Market: Disentangling the Effect of Sector-Specific Mobility Restrictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We assess the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown of some economic sectors on the Colombian labor market. We exploit the variation between excluded and non-excluded sectors from the lockdown, as well as the timing of the restriction policies, to identify the effect of sector-specific restriction policies. These restrictions had negative effects on employment, accounting for approximately a quarter of the total job loss between February and April of 2020; the remaining three quarters of the job losses could be attributed to the regional patterns of the disease spread, and other epidemiological and economic factors affecting the whole country during this period. Therefore, we should expect important employment losses even in the absence of such restrictions. In contrast, we find no significant effect of sector-specific restrictions on average worked hours or wages, indicating that most of the adjustment of the labor market took place in the extensive margin. Moreover, sectorspecific restrictions only affect salaried workers, while self-employment is more responsive to the disease spread. **** RESUMEN: En este trabajo evaluamos el efecto de la pandemia de Covid-19 y las restricciones de movilidad sectoriales en el mercado laboral colombiano. Para identificar el efecto de estas politicas, explotamos la variacion en el empleo y salarios en los sectores excluidos y no excluidos de las restricciones a la movilidad, asi como el momento de su implementacion. Las restricciones sectoriales a la movilidad tienen efectos negativos en el empleo, representando aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la perdida total de empleo entre febrero y abril de 2020. Los patrones regionales de propagacion de la enfermedad y otros componentes epidemiologicos y economicos, que afectaron al pais durante este periodo, representan las tres cuartas partes restantes de la perdida de empleos. Por lo tanto, debemos esperar importantes perdidas de empleo incluso en ausencia de dichas restricciones. No encontramos un efecto significativo en el promedio de horas trabajadas o los salarios, lo que indica que la mayor parte del ajuste del mercado laboral tuvo lugar en el margen extensivo (empleos). Ademas, las restricciones a la movilidad sectoriales afectan principalmente a los trabajadores asalariados, mientras que el trabajo por cuenta propia responde principalmente a la propagacion de la enfermedad.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".