A Deep Graph-Embedded LSTM Neural Network Approach for Airport Delay Prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to the strong propagation causality of delays between airports, this paper proposes a delay prediction model based on a deep graph neural network to study delay prediction from the perspective of an airport network. We regard airports as nodes of a graph network and use a directed graph network to construct airports’ relationship. For adjacent airports, weights of edges are measured by the spherical distance between them, while the number of flight pairs between them is utilized for airports connected by flights. On this basis, a diffusion convolution kernel is constructed to capture characteristics of delay propagation between airports, and it is further integrated into the sequence-to-sequence LSTM neural network to establish a deep learning framework for delay prediction. We name this model as deep graph-embedded LSTM (DGLSTM). To verify the model’s effectiveness and superiority, we utilize the historical delay data of 325 airports in the United States from 2015 to 2018 as the model training set and test set. The experimental results suggest that the proposed method is superior to the existing mainstream methods in terms of accuracy and robustness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".