Trends in Crime Measures: British Columbia, 1999-2013
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Three different measures of crime intensity are available in British Columbia: the Standard Crime Rate (SCR) which measures the number of crimes per 100,000 population; the Crime Severity Index (CSI) which measures the weighted risk to residents of a police jurisdiction; and the Crime Gravity Score (CGS) which measures the seriousness of the set of crimes handled by police in a particular jurisdiction. All three measures show declines over the past decade. British Columbians are safer now than they were in the early 2000’s. Police resource implications of the measures are different. The SCR and CSI have both declined by about 45% since their peak in 2003; the CGS has declined much less, about 17% between 1999 and 2013. This difference suggested that the demand for police resources continues at a higher level than the declines in the CSR and CSI suggest: the crime decline has occurred most intensely among high volume, lower seriousness offences; the continuing crime mix has experienced relatively smaller declines among the high seriousness crimes that typically carry higher response and investigative resource requirements.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.017 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".