Machine Learning and statistic predictive modeling for road traffic flow
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Traffic forecasting is a research topic debated by several researchers affiliated to a range of disciplines. It is becoming increasingly important given the growth of motorized vehicles on the one hand, and the scarcity of lands for new transportation infrastructure on the other. Indeed, in the context of smart cities and with the uninterrupted increase of the number of vehicles, road congestion is taking up an important place in research. In this context, the ability to provide highly accurate traffic forecasts is of fundamental importance to manage traffic, especially in the context of smart cities. This work is in line with this perspective and aims to solve this problem. The proposed methodology plans to forecast day-by-day traffic stream using three different models: the Multilayer Perceptron of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the Support Machine Regression (SMOreg). Using those three models, the forecast is realized based on a history of real traffic data recorded on a road section over 42 months. Besides, a recognized traffic manager in Morocco provides this dataset; the performance is then tested based on predefined criteria. From the experiment results, it is clear that the proposed ANN model achieves highest prediction accuracy with the lowest absolute relative error of 0.57%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".