An Artificial Intelligence Neural Networks Driven Approach to Forecast Production in Unconventional Reservoirs – Comparative Analysis with Decline Curve
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Subsurface engineers pivot on surveillance of reservoir performance for future production rates and plan the optimization strategies at earliest. There are some techniques preferred for unconventional reservoirs such as numerical simulation and decline curve analysis (DCA) for production forecasting, but the uncertainty of uneconomical well test data often occurs in unconventional resources. Moreover, reservoir engineers can also hit a tailback in optimizing and tuning the model. Further, for DCA this approach is only appropriate for well/reservoir that are under boundary dominant flow regime, whereas fracture dominant flow regime is often observed for a longer period in unconventional hydraulically fractured reservoirs. Therefore, to resolve this issue, oil & gas industry (O&G) can adopt AI (Artificial Intelligence) based Algorithms for production forecasting. This paper presents a data-driven algorithm, known as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), along with time series forecasting that is a well-known statistical technique. Machine learning model trained by a past well performance data such as tubing head pressure (THP), flowing bottom-hole pressure can predict future production rates. This can be an efficient technique for subsurface engineers to monitor and optimize well performance. Time series neural networks were used for training the model at top and bottom node of the well with variating pressures in the past. After training and validation, the model predicted a target parameter that was gas rate. ANNs are inspired by biological neurons that are present in human brain, a powerful computing tool to make decisions after fueling itself with data. Moreover, prediction (t+1) nonlinear automated regression is preferred for accurate step ahead. Production rates and constraints of unconventional reservoirs were used to train the model. In our results, the NN based model gave the co-efficient of determination (R2) of 0.996 that shows nearly an exact precision. Furthermore, the values generated from NN Model and Arp's decline curve calculations were plotted for validation and it turned out that ANN can accurately predict the parameters. The Neural Network model is a novel approach for production forecasting, of unconventional reservoirs and help engineers in corporate decision making. This approach can mitigate the need of uneconomical well test operations and further provide confidence to production engineers in terms of data and result expectations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".