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Record W3137552600 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-280154/v1

Periodicity in Extreme Weather in the ‘Maritime Region’ of Eastern North America

2021· preprint· en· W3137552600 on OpenAlexaff
Carling R. Walsh, R. Timothy Patterson

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsCarleton University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsClimatologyTeleconnectionArctic oscillationPrecipitationNorth Atlantic oscillationPacific decadal oscillationEnvironmental scienceExtreme weatherOscillation (cell signaling)Morlet waveletAtlantic multidecadal oscillationSnowClimate changeAtmospheric sciencesEl Niño Southern OscillationGeographyWaveletMeteorologyGeologyOceanographyWavelet transform

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Spectral and wavelet analysis were used to identify trends and cycles in extreme temperature and precipitation events based on historical data (~100-150 years) from six climate stations within the “Maritime Region” of eastern North America. Many statistically significant climate cycles were identified using both spectral and Morlet wavelet analyses at each of these locations for both extreme high and low temperature and precipitation (rain, snow) data, with periodicities typically ranging from ~ 2–30 years. To assess potential drivers of these cyclical extreme weather events, the records of these events were compared, using cross wavelet analysis, to the climate indices of several teleconnections, including the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation. It was found that the 11-year solar cycle had the strongest influence over extreme temperature and precipitation in this region, whereas the remaining oscillations, with the exception the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation, exhibited complex interactions with one another, characterized a variety of both positive and negative modulating effects. The Quasi–Biennial Oscillation was found to drive high–frequency oscillations in extreme weather, particularly extreme precipitation. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that extreme weather events in this region have not substantially increased or decreased in number over time, but have been predominantly influenced by several cyclic climate phenomena.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.983
Threshold uncertainty score0.033

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.154
GPT teacher head0.343
Teacher spread0.189 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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