Monetary policy and housing prices : evidence for the US, Japan and Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper explores both theoretically and empirically the links between house prices, equity prices , inflation, interest rates and economic activity, focusing mainly on the relationship between interest rates and real house prices, in three industrialized countries, namely the USA, Canada and Japan, over the last thirty years. In all three countries, Granger causality tests indicate that there is evidence of a significant bidirectional link between nominal short-term interest rates and the growth rate of real house prices. Analysis via impulse responses verified the expected cumulative response of the one variable to a shock in the other variable. Particularly after an interest rate shock, the growth rate of real house prices falls, with the duration of the effect varying from four quarters (USA) to twelve quarters (Canada). After a shock in the growth rate of real house prices, interest rates rise with the duration of the effect varying from six quarters (Canada) to eleven quarters (Japan). Finally, empirical evidence suggests that monetary authorities should be concentrated on targeting inflation and short run economic stability and that house prices should affect monetary policy only to the extent that they affect the inflation forecast of a central bank.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".