Estimating the Growth Effects of 2004 Eastern Enlargement of the European Union
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we study the growth effects of the 2004 Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) using the synthetic control method. We estimate that this EU enlargement had an immediate but modest positive impact on the economic growth of the EU-8 countries in the first few years following their EU accession. The positive impact of the EU enlargement became more apparent from 2007 when the new EU member states were admitted into the Schengen zone. As a result, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita difference between the actual and synthetic EU-8 continued to grow towards the end of the sample period. We found that over the entire 2004–2012 period, GDP per capita of the EU-8 was increased by about 2313 USD per year on average relative to the synthetic EU-8. The growth rate of the GDP per capita in the actual EU-8 for the same period was 2.7% larger than the synthetic EU-8.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".