Machine Learning Models for Image-Based Diagnosis and Prognosis of COVID-19: Systematic Review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely diagnosis and effective prognosis of the disease is important to provide the best possible care for patients with COVID-19 and reduce the burden on the health care system. Machine learning methods can play a vital role in the diagnosis of COVID-19 by processing chest x-ray images. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to summarize information on the use of intelligent models for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 to help with early and timely diagnosis, minimize prolonged diagnosis, and improve overall health care. METHODS: A systematic search of databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, IEEE, ProQuest, Scopus, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, was performed for COVID-19-related studies published up to May 24, 2020. This study was performed in accordance with the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guidelines. All original research articles describing the application of image processing for the prediction and diagnosis of COVID-19 were considered in the analysis. Two reviewers independently assessed the published papers to determine eligibility for inclusion in the analysis. Risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Of the 629 articles retrieved, 44 articles were included. We identified 4 prognosis models for calculating prediction of disease severity and estimation of confinement time for individual patients, and 40 diagnostic models for detecting COVID-19 from normal or other pneumonias. Most included studies used deep learning methods based on convolutional neural networks, which have been widely used as a classification algorithm. The most frequently reported predictors of prognosis in patients with COVID-19 included age, computed tomography data, gender, comorbidities, symptoms, and laboratory findings. Deep convolutional neural networks obtained better results compared with non-neural network-based methods. Moreover, all of the models were found to be at high risk of bias due to the lack of information about the study population, intended groups, and inappropriate reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models used for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 showed excellent discriminative performance. However, these models were at high risk of bias, because of various reasons such as inadequate information about study participants, randomization process, and the lack of external validation, which may have resulted in the optimistic reporting of these models. Hence, our findings do not recommend any of the current models to be used in practice for the diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.064 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.009 | 0.014 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".