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Record W3139461175 · doi:10.7939/r3-fe1j-we67

Modelling Fire Cessation in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

2020· article· en· W3139461175 on OpenAlex
Kiera A.P. Macauley

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueUniversity of Alberta Library · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicFire effects on ecosystems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In many regions of the world, fires are the primary environmental disturbance producing a mosaic of burned and unburned patches varying at temporal and spatial scales and providing a variety of ecosystem services. Fire perimeters mark the separation between the burned and unburned matrix of a fire. In prior studies in the United States, Australia, and Alberta, variations in the fire environment, fuel, weather, topography, and anthropogenic factors, affected fire perimeter formation. One of the critical challenges in interpreting and comparing regional variations in the fire cessation process is that each study employs a different sample distance and analysis technique. In this study, I examined fire cessation in the western Canadian Rocky Mountain region, where no fire extinguishment studies have been undertaken despite human values at risk facing increased fire hazards. This study investigates how fire environment factors influence fire cessation on the 2017 Verdant Creek Fire in Kootenay National Park. The Verdant Creek Fire is ideally suited to this research as it burned under a variety of environmental conditions, with a varying application of suppression techniques. This work evaluated the performance of 16 distances of analysis for comparing exterior unburned areas with interior burned areas to identify how static variables influence fire cessation. Two spatial and temporal scales assessed the influence of weather on fire boundary formation. The potential influence of fire suppression on fire cessation was also examined. Data were extracted using GIS and analyzed with statistical modelling using matched case-control conditional logistic regression. Predictive fire boundary models were compared to determine the effectiveness of different distances of analysis and predictor variables. Results indicated that fire boundary formation was strongly influenced by fuel composition, arrangement, and to a limited extent, topography. Weather influenced fire boundary formation, but mainly in areas where suppression occurred. Suppression was successful in periods of diminished weather conditions, and areas near waterways. The influence of vegetation was largely consistent regardless of the implementation of suppression tactics. While results from the weather model have applications in operational fire management, occurring over a limited period (1–14 days), the stable fire environment model has applications in strategic planning as it uses variables that are relatively consistent over extended periods (1–5 years). Results from the best sample distance were used to develop a Spread Potential Index (SPI). The SPI was used to map the probability of fire spread. The SPI has potential uses in strategic fire management activities as a tool for rapid visual assessment on the influence of temporally stable fire environmental factors on fire cessation.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.542
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.149
Teacher spread0.140 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it