Emotional Vulnerability to Short Sleep Predicts Increases in Chronic Health Conditions Across 8 Years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Sleep is a robust determinant of next-day emotions, but people vary in the extent that their emotions fluctuate on days following short sleep duration. These individual differences in day-to-day sleep and emotion dynamics may have long-term health implications. PURPOSE: To evaluate emotional vulnerability to short sleep (within-person associations between sleep duration and next-day emotions) as a risk factor for future chronic conditions. METHODS: Adults aged 33-84 (N = 1,426; 57% female) in the Midlife in the United States Study reported sleep duration and emotions by telephone for eight consecutive days. Chronic conditions were assessed via checklist at baseline and at a median follow-up of eight years (range: 5-10 years). Short sleep was examined in three ways: person-centered continuous variable, ≤6 hr, and <7 hr; long sleep was defined as ≥9 hr. RESULTS: Multilevel structural equation models revealed that people with greater negative emotions following nights of sleep ≤6 hr (vs. their negative emotions after longer sleep) had increased chronic conditions at follow-up, compared to people who were less emotionally vulnerable to short sleep (Est. = 1.04, SE = .51, p < .028). Smaller declines in positive emotions following ≤6 hr of sleep were marginally predictive of lower risk for chronic conditions (Est. = -.77, SE = .44, p = .054). Emotional vulnerability to <7, ≥9, and continuous sleep hours were not associated with subsequent chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Emotional vulnerability to short sleep is a unique risk factor for the development of chronic conditions, independent of mean-level sleep duration and emotions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".