A petroleum resource assessment of the Huron Domain area, southern Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Geological Survey of Canada has quantitatively assessed oil and gas resources in self-sourced and self-retained fine-grained clastic (shale) reservoirs within the Upper Ordovician Collingwood and Rouge River members, as well as the undiscovered potential oil and gas resources in Paleozoic conventional reservoirs, incorporating data from a site formerly proposed for a Low and Intermediate deep geologic repository and regional data from southern Ontario. If these two Upper Ordovician shale units are treated as separate resource plays, both fail to meet the minimum criteria set out by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that define a hydrocarbon resource play. When combined however, the two units can be treated as a continuous sedimentary package and, therefore, can be treated as a single resource play. In this report, only the technically recoverable resources are reported. Technically recoverable resources are defined as the volume of oil and gas that could be produced with technology available at the time of the present report, regardless of commodity price, production cost and the cost of bringing the products to markets. The cut-off for the volumetric calculation is 0.5 meters of cumulative hydrocarbon-saturated rock column, which is calculated from hydrocarbon saturated porosity times gross thickness of the combined Collingwood and Rouge River shale units. The 0.5 meter cut-off is equivalent to a hydrocarbon saturated porosity >2.5% and combined gross thickness >20 meters. The cut-off is in general consistent with the geological criteria for defining the shale play boundary as described by the USGS and mentioned above. The total area defined by the reservoir cut-off is smaller than the area within the shale play boundary and is regarded as the risked prospective area by reservoir criterion. The geographic distribution of the predicted hydrocarbon resources of the Upper Ordovician Collingwood and Rouge River shale units indicates that a large volume of the potential hydrocarbon resources of these two shale units occur in the Appalachian Basin portion of southern Ontario. Only a small quantity of the reservoir-risked resource is predicted to occur in the southeastern part of the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) study area. Among the undiscovered technically recoverable unconventional resources within the study area, the mean totals are 11.7 million barrels of shale oil (MMBO), with a fractile (F95-F05, respectively) range from 6.4-19.2 MMBO and 8.0 billion cubic feet of continuous gas (Bcf), with a fractile range from 4.6-12.7 Bcf. Regarding conventional resource, mean totals of 6.8 million barrels of conventional oil and 52.3 Bcf of conventional gas are estimated to occur in the study area, although subjectively this estimate is considered to be optimistic. The ranges of resource estimates reflect the geologic uncertainty of the source-reservoir rock systems and spatial extrapolation of resource mapping from sparse well controls. Much of the uncertainty is related to models constructed to estimate the quantity of oil remaining in the source rocks following migration and the quality of oil and gas stored in conventional reservoirs. Only a small portion of the potential resource lies within the NWMO study area (Huron Domain). The bulk of the potential hydrocarbons that are estimated to be trapped within the lithostratigraphic members is considered to be exceptionally low in the NWMO study area due to a combination of low permeability, contrasting lithologies, low formation pressures, low degrees of thermal maturation, high oil viscosity impeding hydrocarbon fluid flow and poor oil show index (S1/TOC <1).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".