Predicting the clinical management of skin lesions using deep learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Automated machine learning approaches to skin lesion diagnosis from images are approaching dermatologist-level performance. However, current machine learning approaches that suggest management decisions rely on predicting the underlying skin condition to infer a management decision without considering the variability of management decisions that may exist within a single condition. We present the first work to explore image-based prediction of clinical management decisions directly without explicitly predicting the diagnosis. In particular, we use clinical and dermoscopic images of skin lesions along with patient metadata from the Interactive Atlas of Dermoscopy dataset (1011 cases; 20 disease labels; 3 management decisions) and demonstrate that predicting management labels directly is more accurate than predicting the diagnosis and then inferring the management decision ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] improvement in overall accuracy and AUROC respectively), statistically significant at [Formula: see text]. Directly predicting management decisions also considerably reduces the over-excision rate as compared to management decisions inferred from diagnosis predictions (24.56% fewer cases wrongly predicted to be excised). Furthermore, we show that training a model to also simultaneously predict the seven-point criteria and the diagnosis of skin lesions yields an even higher accuracy (improvements of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] in overall accuracy and AUROC respectively) of management predictions. Finally, we demonstrate our model's generalizability by evaluating on the publicly available MClass-D dataset and show that our model agrees with the clinical management recommendations of 157 dermatologists as much as they agree amongst each other.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".