A Framework for Traffic Collision Prediction Using Historical Accident Information and Real-Time Sensor Data: A Case Study for the City of Ottawa
Bibliographic record
Abstract
According to recent studies, beyond being a major worldwide problem with huge economic impact, traffic collisions are poised to become as well one of the most important leading causes of death. Proactive traffic enforcement and intervention should be based on a thorough analysis on the collision data available to identify leading causes of accidents, the most prone locations as well as to predict the conditions for collision occurrence. This thesis presents a novel framework for collision prediction that takes into consideration historical and real-time factors, such as weather, geospatial information and social event data that can be obtained with existing sensor technology. A prototype is proposed, implemented and evaluated for the city of Ottawa, Canada, to predict: (1) accident frequency (collision vs nocollisions) and (2) accident severity (in terms of fatal, injury and property damage only accidents). The best performance was achieved in both cases using gradient boosted trees.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".