Long-term ice-rich permafrost coast sensitivity to air temperatures and storm influence: lessons from Pullen Island, N.W.T.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Response of erosive mechanisms to climate change is of mounting concern on Beaufort Sea coasts, which experience some of the highest erosion rates in the Arctic. Collapse of intact permafrost blocks and slumping within sprawling retrogressive thaw complexes are two predominant mechanisms that manifest as cliff retreat in this region. Using aerial imagery and ground survey data from Pullen Island, Northwest Territories., Canada, from 13 time points between 1947 and 2018, we observe increasing mean retreat rates from 0 ± 4.8 m a−1 in 1947 to 12 ± 0.3 m a−1 in 2018. Mean summer air temperature was positively correlated with cliff retreat over each time step via block failure (r2 = 0.08; p = 0.5) and slumping (r2 = 0.41; p = 0.05), as was mean storm duration with cliff retreat via block failure (r2 = 0.84; p = 0.0002) and slumping (r2 = 0.34; p = 0.08). These data indicate that air temperature has a greater impact in slump-dominated areas, whereas storm duration has greater control in areas of block failure. Increasingly, heterogeneous cliff retreat rates are likely resulting from different magnitudes of response to climate trends depending on mechanism, and on geomorphological variations that prescribe occurrences of retrogressive thaw slumps.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".