Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Persons with Very High Serum Levels of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: While persons in the upper fourth or fifth of the distribution of serum levels of N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are at a sharply increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation, their absolute risk of this condition (about 20 per 1000 per year) is not clearly high enough to justify prevention or early detection measures. We sought to determine whether the incidence of atrial fibrillation among persons with VERY high levels of NT-proBNP might be sufficiently high to warrant further action. DESIGN AND SETTING: Among persons enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we documented rates of new onset atrial fibrillation in those with increasingly high serum levels of NT-proBNP. RESULTS: There was a monotonic increase in the incidence of atrial fibrillation with increasing serum level of NT-proBNP, reaching rates of about 50-70 cases per 1000 person-years among those in the upper 3.1% of the distribution (above 422 pg/mL). In this group the incidence tended to be somewhat higher still among persons who were at increased risk of atrial fibrillation for other reasons (eg older age), but in no subgroup did the incidence reach 100 per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSION: Serum levels of NT-proBNP have a considerable ability to predict the development of atrial fibrillation. However, the value of screening middle aged and older adults for these levels hinges largely on the ability of interventions in screen-positive people to lead to a reduced incidence of atrial fibrillation and its complications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it