Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Outbreak Investigation in Hajjah Governorate, Yemen, in 2018: Case-Control Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is endemic in Yemen. About 4440 cases were reported in 2019. On July 23, 2018, a Hajjah governorate surveillance officer notified the Ministry of Public Health and Population about an increase in the number of CL cases in Bani-Oshb, Kuhlan district, Hajjah governorate. On July 24, 2018, Yemen Field Epidemiology Training Program sent a team to perform an investigation. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe a CL outbreak in Hajjah governorate and determine its risk factors. METHODS: A descriptive study and case-control study (1:1 ratio) were conducted. Cases included people who met the suspected or confirmed case definition of the World Health Organization and lived in Bani-Oshb subdistrict during the period from August 2017 to July 2018. Controls included people living for at least 1 year in Bani-Oshb without new or old skin lesions. Crude odds ratios (cORs) and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CI were used to test the significance of associations. RESULTS: We identified 30 CL cases. Among the 30 patients, 7 (23%) were younger than 5 years, 17 (57%) were 5 to 14 years, 17 (57%) were females, and 23 (77%) had one lesion. The attack rate was 7 per 1000 population in the age group <15 years and 1 per 1000 population in the age group ≥15 years. On bivariate analysis, the following factors were significantly associated with CL: female gender (cOR 5.2, 95% CI 1.7-16.5), malnutrition (cOR 5.2, 95% CI 1.7-16.5), not using a bed net (cOR 14.5, 95% CI 1.7-122.4), poor house lighting (cOR 6.4, 95% CI 2.1-19.7), poor house hygiene (cOR 11.2, 95% CI 3.1-40.7), poor sanitation (cOR 14.5, 95% CI 1.7-122.4), living in houses without window nets (cOR 5.2, 95% CI 1.3-21.2), plantation around the house (cOR 6.5, 95% CI 2.1-20.5), animal barn inside or close to the house (cOR 9.3, 95% CI 1.9-46.7), raising animals (cOR 8.1, 95% CI 1.6-40.7), and having animal dung in or near the house (cOR 6.8, 95% CI 1.7-27.7). The following risk factors remained significant on multivariate stepwise analysis: female gender (aOR 22.7, 95% CI 1.6-320.5), malnutrition (aOR 17.2, 95% CI 1.3-225.8), poor house hygiene (aOR 45.6, 95% CI 2.5-846.4), plantation around the house (aOR 43.8, 95% CI 1.9-1009.9), and raising animals (aOR 287.1, 95% CI 5.4-15205.6). CONCLUSIONS: CL was endemic in Hajjah governorate, and an increase in cases was confirmed. Many individual, housing, and animal related factors were shown to contribute to CL endemicity. Implementation of control measures directed toward altering the factors favoring contact among vectors, reservoirs, and susceptible humans is strongly recommended to control future outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".