The Seasonality of Global Land and Ocean Mass and the Changing Water Cycle
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The global water cycle is generally viewed as the cycling of water masses among the land, ocean, and atmosphere. This cycling predominantly occurs at the annual time scale and between land and ocean, constituting the seasonal global water cycle. NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE‐Follow On missions can directly observe the seasonal global water cycle and describe the changes in its intensity. We present seasonal amplitudes of the global land water and ocean mass anomalies between 04/2002 and 11/2020. We find that the average seasonal amplitude is 17.0 ± 0.6 mm sea level equivalent (SLE), and its interannual variability ( σ = 1.1 mm SLE) is comparable to the long‐term trends in the land and ocean masses. We investigate two periods of rapid amplification and deamplification during which the amplitude changed as much as 29%, and find that changes in hydroclimatology in certain land regions modulate the seasonal global water cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".