Understanding differences in job growth in Europe, Canada and the United States: what went wrong in the United States?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Alan Krueger attempts to understand what went wrong in the US job market in the 2000s and why job growth slowed down even before the Great Recession that began in 2008. Because Canada is similar to the United States in terms of geography, technology, productivity and exposure to global markets, particular attention is devoted to comparing job growth in Canada with the United States. Krueger cites six possible reasons for weak job growth, provides evidence for two of them (the aging workforce and health insurance as a fixed cost of employment) and conjectures on the others. A rough calculation to decompose the change in the employment-to-population ratio suggests that about a third of the drop can be attributed to the secular trend and about two-thirds can be attributed to the cycle. Assuming that the factors for the secular trend are still present, he turns to possible causes of the downward trend: age, education and gender.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".