Spacial Dependence in the Residential Canadian Housing Market
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the spatial dependence of residential resale housing returns in ten major Canadian Census Metropolitan areas (or CMAs) from 1992Q4 to 2012Q4 and makes the following methodological contributions. Firstly, in the context of a spatial dynamic panel data model we use grid search to derive the appropriate spatial weight matrix W among different possible specifications. We select the compound W with the minimum root mean squared error formed from geographical distances and the ten CMAs' gross domestic product. Secondly, contrary to common practice in the literature, we decompose the impacts of explanatory variables into direct and indirect impacts and proceed to derive and plot the impulse response functions of housing returns to external shocks. The empirical results suggest that Canadian residential housing markets exhibit statistically significant spatial dependence and spatial autocorrelation and that both geographical distances and economic closeness are the dominant channels of spatial interaction. Furthermore, the special feature of the Canadian housing market is that the responses to the shocks do not spread widely across regions and that they fade fast over time.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it