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Record W3148968483 · doi:10.1101/2021.03.27.21254452

Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK)

2021· preprint· en· W3148968483 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Hayley Holt, Mohammad Talaei, Matthew Greenig, Dominik Zenner, Jane Symons, Clare Relton, Katherine S. Young, Molly R. Davies, Katherine Thompson, Jed Ashman, Sultan Saeed Rajpoot, Ahmed Ali Kayyale, Sarah El Rifai, Philippa Lloyd, David A. Jolliffe, Sarah Finer, Stamatina Ilidriomiti, Alec Miners, Nicholas S Hopkinson, Bodrul Alam, Paul Pfeffer, David McCoy, Gwyneth A. Davies, Ronan A Lyons, Chris Griffiths, Frank Kee, Aziz Sheikh, Gerome Breen, Seif O. Shaheen, Adrian R. Martineau

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldPsychology
TopicCOVID-19 and Mental Health
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersAsthma and Lung UKBritish Heart FoundationCancer Research UKMedical Research CouncilBritish Lung FoundationBarts CharityDiabetes UKUK Research and InnovationEconomic and Social Research CouncilRosetrees TrustArthritis SocietyVasculitis UK
KeywordsMedicineDemographyOvercrowdingBody mass indexOdds ratioObesityLogistic regressionPopulationEthnic groupOddsEnvironmental healthInternal medicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Summary Background Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, Black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 st May 2020 to 5 th February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and risk of COVID-19. Findings We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15,227 participants (2.9%). Increased risk of developing COVID-19 was independently associated with Asian/Asian British vs . White ethnicity (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.35-3.95), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11-1.43), any vs . no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.33, 1.07-1.64), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.01-1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care vs . no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12-1.98), and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.51 [1.20-1.90] for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m 2 and 1.38 [1.05-1.82] for BMI >30.0 kg/m 2 vs . BMI <25.0 kg/m 2 ). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased risk (aOR 0.76, 0.59-0.98). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet, or micronutrient supplement use. Interpretation After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased risk of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased risk. Funding Barts Charity, Health Data Research UK

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.082
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.239
GPT teacher head0.480
Teacher spread0.241 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations13
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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