Predicting Outcomes in Men With Metastatic Nonseminomatous Germ Cell Tumors (NSGCT): Results From the IGCCCG Update Consortium
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: The classification of the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) plays a pivotal role in the management of metastatic germ cell tumors but relies on data of patients treated between 1975 and 1990. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on 9,728 men with metastatic nonseminomatous germ cell tumors treated with cisplatin- and etoposide-based first-line chemotherapy between 1990 and 2013 were collected from 30 institutions or collaborative groups in Europe, North America, and Australia. Clinical trial and registry data were included. Primary end points were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). The survival estimates were updated for the current era. Additionally, a novel prognostic model for PFS was developed in 3,543 patients with complete information on potentially relevant variables. The results were validated in an independent data set. RESULTS: Compared with the original IGCCCG publication, 5-year PFS remained similar in patients with good prognosis with 89% (87%-91%) versus 90% (95% CI, 89 to 91), but the 5-year OS increased from 92% (90%-94%) to 96% (95%-96%). In patients with intermediate prognosis, PFS remained similar with 75% (71%-79%) versus 78% (76%-80%) and the OS increased from 80% (76%-84%) to 89% (88%-91%). In patients with poor prognosis, the PFS increased from 41% (95% CI, 35 to 47) to 54% (95% CI, 52 to 56) and the OS from 48% (95% CI, 42 to 54) to 67% (95% CI, 65 to 69). A more granular prognostic model was developed and independently validated. This model identified a new cutoff of lactate dehydrogenase at a 2.5 upper limit of normal and increasing age and presence of lung metastases as additional adverse prognostic factors. An online calculator is provided (https://www.eortc.org/IGCCCG-Update). CONCLUSION: The IGCCCG Update model improves individual prognostication in metastatic nonseminomatous germ cell tumors. Increasing age and lung metastases add granularity to the original IGCCCG classification as adverse prognostic factors.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it