Egocentric Biases are Determined by the Precision of Self-related Predictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract According to predictive processing theories, emotional inference involves simultaneously minimising discrepancies between predictions and sensory data relating to both one’s own and others’ states, achievable by altering either one’s own state (empathy) or perception of another’s state (egocentric bias) so they are more congruent. We tested a key hypothesis of these accounts, that predictions are weighted in inference according to their precision (inverse variance). If correct, more precise self-related predictions should bias perception of another’s emotional expression to a greater extent than less precise predictions. We manipulated predictions about upcoming own-pain (low or high magnitude) using cues that afforded either precise (a narrow range of possible magnitudes) or imprecise (a wide range) predictions. Participants judged pained facial expressions presented concurrently with own-pain to be more intense when own-pain was greater, and precise cues increased this biasing effect. Implications of conceptualising interpersonal influence in terms of predictive processing are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".