Artificial Intelligence-Enabled and Period-Aware Forecasting COVID-19 Spread
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has reached the stage of an international epidemic with a major socioeconomic negative impact. Considering the weakness of the healthy structure and the limited availability of test kits, particularly in emerging countries, predicting the spread of COVID-19 is expected to help decision-makers to improve health management and contribute to alleviating the related risks. In this article, we studied the effectiveness of machine learning techniques using Morocco as a case-study. We studied the performance of six multi-step models derived from both Machine Learning and Deep Learning regards multiple scenarios by combining different time lags and three COVID-19 datasets(periods): confinement, deconfinement, and hybrid datasets. The results prove the efficiency of Deep Learning models and identify the best combinations of these models and the time lags enabling good predictions of new cases. The results also show that the prediction of the spread of COVID-19 is a context sensitive problem.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".