Multi-decadal shifts in the distribution and timing of Pacific herring (<i>Clupea pallasii</i>) spawning in Prince William Sound, Alaska
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The location and timing of spawning play a critical role in pelagic fish survival during early life stages and can affect subsequent recruitment. Spawning patterns of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were examined in Prince William Sound (1973–2019) where the population has failed to recover since its collapse in 1993. Abrupt shifts in spawn distribution preceded the rapid increase in population size in the 1980s and later its collapse by one and two years, respectively. Following the population collapse, spawning contracted away from historical regions towards southeastern areas of the Sound, and the proportion of occupied spawning areas declined from 65% to <9%. Spatial differences in spawn timing variation were also apparent, as the median spawn date shifted earlier by 26 days in eastern and 15 days in western areas of Prince William Sound between 1980 and 2006, and then shifted later by 25 (eastern) and 19 (western) days over a 7-year period. Effects of contracted spawning areas and timing shifts on first-year survival and recruitment are uncertain and require future investigation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".