Trends in radar counts of Marbled Murrelets Brachyramphus marmoratus in British Columbia (1996-2018): Effects of 'The Blob' marine heatwave and prey fish abundance.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During 2014–2016, the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced a large-scale marine heatwave (nicknamed ‘The Blob’), an event that was associated with die-offs of several marine bird species. The Marbled Murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus is a small seabird in this region for which we evaluated trends in abundance—for the purposes of conservation planning—during radar surveys at 58 sites in coastal British Columbia, from 1996 to 2018, and for which we determined whether trends may have been affected by ‘The Blob’. A hierarchical Bayesian model allowed us to separate long-term trends from short-term annual fluctuations (‘year effects’) that might have resulted from changes in ocean conditions, and it also allowed us to test whether predicted regional counts were associated with two indices of marine conditions: (1) measured abundance of a prey species, Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii; and (2) sea surface temperature (SST). Province-wide mean annual rate of change in counts was significantly negative, with a posterior median of -0.023 (95% credible interval: -0.033, -0.014); mean rate of change in counts per year was negative for all six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions; and trends were significantly negative at the Central Mainland Coast, East Vancouver Island, Haida Gwaii, and the South Mainland Coast conservation regions. Year effects during or after ‘The Blob’ at West and North Vancouver Island (2016) and East Vancouver Island (2018) conservation regions were not statistically significant. Mean predicted regional counts of murrelets showed weakly positive correlations with age two herring recruitment, and no consistent associations with SST. These results indicate that the marine heatwave did not strongly affect forest-bound murrelets and are consistent with the hypothesis that ongoing loss of terrestrial nesting habitat is associated with population declines of Marbled Murrelets in British Columbia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".