Learning the Mental Health Impact of COVID-19 in the United States With Explainable Artificial Intelligence: Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the health, economic, and social fabric of many nations worldwide. Identification of individual-level susceptibility factors may help people in identifying and managing their emotional, psychological, and social well-being. OBJECTIVE: This study is focused on learning a ranked list of factors that could indicate a predisposition to a mental disorder during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this study, we have used a survey of 17,764 adults in the United States from different age groups, genders, and socioeconomic statuses. Through initial statistical analysis and Bayesian network inference, we have identified key factors affecting mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Integrating Bayesian networks with classical machine learning approaches led to effective modeling of the level of mental health prevalence. RESULTS: Overall, females were more stressed than males, and people in the age group 18-29 years were more vulnerable to anxiety than other age groups. Using the Bayesian network model, we found that people with a chronic mental illness were more prone to mental disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic. The new realities of working from home; homeschooling; and lack of communication with family, friends, and neighbors induces mental pressure. Financial assistance from social security helps in reducing mental stress during the COVID-19-generated economic crises. Finally, using supervised machine learning models, we predicted the most mentally vulnerable people with ~80% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors such as social isolation, digital communication, and working and schooling from home were identified as factors of mental illness during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regular in-person communication with friends and family, a healthy social life, and social security were key factors, and taking care of people with a history of mental disease appears to be even more important during this time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".