Early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease on ADNI data using novel longitudinal score based on functional principal component analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Methods: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a worldwide prevalent age-related neurodegenerative disease with no available cure yet. Early prognosis is therefore crucial for planning proper clinical intervention. It is especially true for people diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment, to whom the prediction of whether and when the future disease onset would happen is particularly valuable. However, such prognostic prediction has been proven to be challenging, and previous studies have only achieved limited success. Approach: In this study, we seek to extract the principal component of the longitudinal disease progression trajectory in the early stage of AD, measured as the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived structural volume, to predict the onset of AD for mild cognitive impaired patients two years ahead. Results: Cross-validation results of LASSO regression using the longitudinal functional principal component (FPC) features show significant improved predictive power compared to training using the baseline volume 12 months before AD conversion [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.802 versus 0.732] and 24 months before AD conversion (AUC of 0.816 versus 0.717). Conclusions: We present a framework using the FPCA to extract features from MRI-derived information collected from multiple timepoints. The results of our study demonstrate the advantageous predictive power of the population-based longitudinal features to predict the disease onset compared with using only cross-sectional data-based on volumetric features extracted from a single timepoint, demonstrating the improved prediction power using FPC-derived longitudinal features.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".