Early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease on ADNI data using novel longitudinal score based on functional principal component analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Methods: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a worldwide prevalent age-related neurodegenerative disease with no available cure yet. Early prognosis is therefore crucial for planning proper clinical intervention. It is especially true for people diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment, to whom the prediction of whether and when the future disease onset would happen is particularly valuable. However, such prognostic prediction has been proven to be challenging, and previous studies have only achieved limited success. Approach: In this study, we seek to extract the principal component of the longitudinal disease progression trajectory in the early stage of AD, measured as the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived structural volume, to predict the onset of AD for mild cognitive impaired patients two years ahead. Results: Cross-validation results of LASSO regression using the longitudinal functional principal component (FPC) features show significant improved predictive power compared to training using the baseline volume 12 months before AD conversion [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.802 versus 0.732] and 24 months before AD conversion (AUC of 0.816 versus 0.717). Conclusions: We present a framework using the FPCA to extract features from MRI-derived information collected from multiple timepoints. The results of our study demonstrate the advantageous predictive power of the population-based longitudinal features to predict the disease onset compared with using only cross-sectional data-based on volumetric features extracted from a single timepoint, demonstrating the improved prediction power using FPC-derived longitudinal features.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it