MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W3154470020 · doi:10.3390/modelling2020013

A Tutorial on Fire Domino Effect Modeling Using Bayesian Networks

2021· article· en· W3154470020 on OpenAlexaff
Nima Khakzad

Bibliographic record

VenueModelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering Science · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicRisk and Safety Analysis
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDomino effectBayesian networkComputer scienceDominoDynamic Bayesian networkEvent (particle physics)SLCO1B1Bayesian probabilityEvent treePoolingEvent tree analysisFault tree analysisProbabilistic logicMachine learningInfluence diagramArtificial intelligenceData miningReliability engineeringDecision treeEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical and process facilities have made them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects, particularly fire dominoes, are spatial-temporal phenomena where not only the location of involved units, but also their temporal entailment in the accident chain matter. Spatial-temporal dependencies and uncertainties prevailing during domino effects, arising mainly from possible synergistic effects and randomness of potential events, restrict the use of conventional risk assessment techniques such as fault tree and event tree. Bayesian networks—a type of probabilistic network for reasoning under uncertainty—have proven to be a reliable and robust technique for the modeling and risk assessment of domino effects. In the present study, applications of Bayesian networks to modeling and safety assessment of domino effects in petroleum tank terminals has been demonstrated via some examples. The tutorial starts by illustrating the inefficacy of event tree analysis in domino effect modeling and then discusses the capabilities of Bayesian network and its derivatives such as dynamic Bayesian network and influence diagram. It is also discussed how noisy OR can be used to significantly reduce the complexity and number of conditional probabilities required for model establishment.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.017
Threshold uncertainty score0.056

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.003
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0020.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0170.005

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.146
GPT teacher head0.430
Teacher spread0.283 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations11
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueModelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering ScienceSame topicRisk and Safety AnalysisFrench-language works237,207