End-to-end Multi-task Learning of Missing Value Imputation and Forecasting in Time-Series Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multivariate time-series prediction is a common task, but it often becomes challenging due to missing data caused by unreliable sensors and other issues. In fact, inaccurate imputation of missing values can degrade the downstream prediction performance, so it may be better not to rely on the estimated values of missing data. Furthermore, observed data may contain noise, so denoising them can be helpful for the main task at hand. In response, we propose a novel approach that can automatically utilize the optimal combination of the observed and the estimated values to generate not only complete, but also noise-reduced data by our own gating mechanism. We evaluate our model on incomplete real-world time-series datasets and achieved state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, we present in-depth studies using a carefully designed, synthetic multivariate time-series dataset to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The ablation studies and the experimental analysis of the proposed gating mechanism show that it works as an effective denoising and imputation method for time-series classification tasks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".