Modelling climatic impacts on ice-jam floods: a review of current models, modelling capabilities, challenges, and future prospects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
River ice is an important hydraulic and hydrological component of many rivers in the high northern latitudes of the world. It controls the hydraulic characteristics of streamflow, affects the geomorphology of channels, and can cause flooding due to ice-jam formation during ice-cover freeze-up and breakup periods. In recent decades, climate change has considerably altered ice regimes, affecting the severity of ice-jam flooding. Although many approaches have been developed to model river ice regimes and the severity of ice-jam flooding, appropriate methods that account for the impacts of future climate on ice-jam flooding have not been well established. Therefore, the main goals of this study are to review current knowledge regarding climate change impacts on river ice processes and to assess current modelling capabilities to determine the severity of ice jams under future climatic conditions. Finally, a conceptual river ice-jam modelling approach is presented for incorporating climate change impacts on ice jams.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".