Exploring a Hidden Epidemic: Drowning Among Adults Aged 65 Years and Older
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objectives: To explore trends in unintentional fatal drowning among older adults (65 years and older). Methods: Total population retrospective analysis of unintentional fatal drowning among people aged 65 years and older in Australia, Canada and New Zealand (2005–2014) was conducted. Results: 1459 older adults died. Rates ranged from 1.69 (Canada) to 2.20 (New Zealand) per 100,000. Trends in crude drowning rates were variable from year to year. A downward trend was observed in New Zealand (y = −.507ln(x) + 2.9918), with upward trends in Australia (y = .1056ln(x) + 1.5948) and Canada (y = .1489ln(x) + 1.4571). Population projections suggest high annual drowning deaths by 2050 in Australia (range: 120–190; 1.69–2.76/100,000) and Canada (range: 209–430; 1.78–3.66/100,000). Significant locations and activities associated with older adult drowning differed by country and age band. Conclusions: Drowning among older adults is a hidden epidemic claiming increasing lives as the population ages. Targeted drowning prevention strategies are urgently needed in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and other similar countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".