Rising Subnational Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Challenge to Meeting Federal Climate Policy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Policy makers in federated countries and the EU seeking to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions face a challenge when emissions are rising in some subnational jurisdictions. The magnitude of that challenge is influenced by the portion of total emissions represented by those jurisdictions, the rate of change in that portion, and the political power of those jurisdictions. This phenomenon is examined by a comparison of the role of rising-emission jurisdictions in the EU and Canada. We define a “rising-emission jurisdiction” as one in which emissions were higher in 2018 than in 1990, regardless of how its emissions may have risen or fallen between those dates. Those findings show that the role of rising-emission jurisdictions must be added to the factors identified in the literature explaining why between 1990 and 2018 EU emissions have declined by 25% while Canadian emissions have increased by 21%. To better understand this phenomenon and to help policy makers cope with it, more research is needed on its influence in other federated countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".